Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 0.016216 0.018374 0.020716 0.023448 0.026548 0.029958 0.033995
2025-06-15 0.013032 0.016053 0.019617 0.024137 0.029723 0.036411 0.045039
2025-06-22 0.010652 0.013883 0.017917 0.023332 0.030424 0.039419 0.051728
2025-06-29 0.009164 0.012508 0.016879 0.023026 0.031471 0.042702 0.058834
2025-07-06 0.007864 0.011167 0.015661 0.022241 0.031659 0.044710 0.064262
2025-07-13 0.007318 0.010771 0.015642 0.023036 0.034026 0.049831 0.074434
2025-07-20 0.006799 0.010340 0.015501 0.023600 0.036054 0.054589 0.084471
2025-07-27 0.006398 0.010028 0.015483 0.024311 0.038325 0.059854 0.095716
2025-08-03 0.005845 0.009421 0.014947 0.024150 0.039197 0.063003 0.103881
2025-08-10 0.005396 0.008930 0.014538 0.024131 0.040259 0.066496 0.112866
2025-08-17 0.004920 0.008347 0.013921 0.023703 0.040583 0.068778 0.119981
2025-08-24 0.004634 0.008052 0.013746 0.023986 0.042111 0.073163 0.131059
2025-08-31 0.004281 0.007616 0.013308 0.023798 0.042839 0.076300 0.140352
2025-09-07 0.004101 0.007470 0.013357 0.024472 0.045161 0.082444 0.155705
2025-09-14 0.003712 0.006911 0.012624 0.023657 0.044678 0.083460 0.161550
2025-09-21 0.003437 0.006535 0.012188 0.023347 0.045095 0.086146 0.170792
2025-09-28 0.003123 0.006060 0.011529 0.022550 0.044500 0.086845 0.176166
2025-10-05 0.003042 0.006024 0.011692 0.023357 0.047104 0.093938 0.195028
2025-10-12 0.002937 0.005931 0.011736 0.023928 0.049278 0.100353 0.213078
2025-10-19 0.002856 0.005878 0.011851 0.024650 0.051815 0.107702 0.233770
2025-10-26 0.002685 0.005628 0.011552 0.024487 0.052485 0.111239 0.246551
2025-11-02 0.002543 0.005425 0.011331 0.024468 0.053454 0.115474 0.261245
2025-11-09 0.002372 0.005147 0.010934 0.024033 0.053477 0.117667 0.271527